“According to the report [the International Energy Agency’s World Outlook 2010], by 2035 three quarters of currently operating oil fields won’t be producing anymore. In fact, current fields are only expected to account for less than one fifth of that year’s production.
“That leaves over 80 percent of the IEA’s 2035 production projection coming from new oil fields, ones that either haven’t yet been developed or haven’t even been discovered. And the contribution from that undiscovered category alone is still far greater than the one from currently producing fields. That’s a tall order for new field discovery.
“Undeveloped or undiscovered oil fields, growth in tar sands production and increased alliance on natural gas liquids account for all the expected growth in world production over the next two and a half decades.”
Sounds like it’s based on hope.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration, the EIA, “expects the crude oil market to tighten in 2012…” So the price of oil will continue to rise.
Back in 2007 Colin Campbell, head of the “London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, (said) that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years (2011) before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way we live our lives.”
That has already happened and evidence has shown that in the reports for older fields this occurred somewhere around the 2005-06 time period with declining outputs each year, including Mexico’s largest oil producer at Cantarell. We have entered Kunstler’s “long emergency” and our lives over the next 20 years will be changed for ever.
Campbell: “The peak of regular oil-the cheap and easy to extract stuff-has already come and gone in 2005. Even when you factor in the more difficult to extract heavy oil, deep sea reserves, polar regions and liquid taken from gas, the peak will come as soon as 2011…” These hundreds of large, older oil fields are all in decline now. Each year the output will continue to diminish.
(There are no new oil discoveries that can compare in size to those oil fields that are being lost. Meanwhile, demand is up as the developing nations such as China, India, Brazil and Russia have populations that are going on a spending spree.)
Here are a few examples why the world, and especially the United States, have entered a period in which everything about our lives will change:
Wikileaks energy cable: The topic is about the UK running out of current oil and gas reserves by 2020.
In this April 7, 2008 summary, UK Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks talks about the energy situation for the UK with US Under Secretary for Economic, Energy and Agricultural Affairs Reuben Jeffrey. A few excerpts are below:
1. The UK will experience a severe decrease in North Sea gas and oil stocks by 2020, and will need to improve its diversity of supply as well as move towards ‘homegrown’ measures such as nuclear and renewables.
2. (C/NF) Minister Wicks told U/S Jeffrey on March 31 that climate change and energy security went hand-in-hand for the UK…
The UK will see its indigenous gas and oil stocks drop by eight per cent per year over the next several years, and will import 60-80 per cent of its oil and gas supply by 2020. To address this deficit the UK needs to ensure a diversity of supply, and has been in discussions with Qatar and Norway, Wicks said.
(In another 9 years, the UK wells will be moving toward empty.)
MEXICO BECOMES A NET OIL IMPORTER BY 2020?
Mexico is a significant supplier of oil to the United States but that is changing. Cantarell, until recently the largest oil producer for Mexico, has reached peak oil. “The field peaked in 2003 at 2.1 million bpd and then began a steady period of decline.” and at the end of last year (2010) was producing under 500,000 bpd…(worldoil.com)
“Mexico’s production (total) has fallen by about 1 million bpd since 2004, to about 2.5 million bpd today.” Of that, 1.1 million bpd is exported to the US. Some estimate, even with new drilling technology, that Mexico could become a net importer of oil by 2020. And the oil available by these new and expensive tactics, if you could reclaim all of it, would only be enough to last the U.S. a few years.
The US would have to look elsewhere for that oil because Mexico, like many nations, has a growing domestic population demanding oil. See ‘Mexico Oil Exports Could End Within Decade, Report Warns.’
THE UNITED STATES COULD LOSE VENEZUELA’S OIL TO CHINA
China is dealing with Latin American countries to stock up on commodities, including oil, since the demand for everything is going to become scarce and expensive over the next 30 years. And China has “about $3 trillion dollars in reserves to burn.”
“Recent deals have made China a key financier to the governments of Venezuela and Argentina. At the same time, Chinese companies have secured a decade’s worth of oil from Venezuela and Brazil, and steady supplies of wheat, soybeans and natural gas from Argentina.”
“For China, this is a strategic, long-term investment…They’re thinking in the future, not just in the moment. These oil investments, for example, are for 15 to 20 years.”
“Some of the largest investments have gone to Brazil and Argentina, but China has extended even bigger loans to Venezuela, agreeing to provide more than $32 billion to President Hugo Chavez’s government.
“Venezuela will pay its debt in oil, and in increasing amounts of it during the next decade. The infusion of cash has swiftly made China Venezuela’s biggest foreign lender, enabling Chavez to boost spending ahead of next year’s presidential election.”
“The relationship is driven in part by Chavez’s eagerness to form alliances that exclude the U.S. But it’s also good business for Chinese companies: Venezuela says it has been exporting to China about 460,000 barrels a day, about 20 percent of its oil exports, according to official figures. It hopes to double that soon.” Read more. Then click on China shops for Latin American oil, food…
Hugo Chavez would love to stick it to the United States and it appears that he is working toward that end. That would force the US to find a replacement for that energy source. With oil becoming a scarce commodity, that may not be possible.
SAUDI ARABIA AND OTHER OIL PRODUCERS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MEET CUSTOMER OIL DEMANDS
There is a “growth in population” problem in the Middle East oil-producing nations. And these new domestic customers want cars, air-conditioning, etc. The problem is that soon, Saudi Arabia for example, may not have any oil available for oil-importing nations. And that’s a grave situation for planet earth and the United States.
Reuters reported (April 25, 2011) that the growing number of citizens of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are using larger amounts of subsidized gasoline for that drive through the desert.
“In Saudi Arabia oil consumption has climbed 50% in the last decade to an estimated 2.7 million barrels a day. Saudi Aramco, the national oil company, projects that demand could hit 8.3 million barrels a day by 2030.
“In 2010 Saudi Arabia exported 7.5 million barrels a day. Add in estimated spare capacity of 2.8 million barrels a day. And then to the very scary math: If Saudi consumption rises to 8.3 million barrels a day, the country will consume almost all of the 10.3 million barrels a day it has in exports and spare capacity.”
Another example: “Oil consumption in Kuwait is rising so fast that it will have to start reducing oil exports within a decade, according to the Brookings Institution.” See complete article.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE UNITED STATES?
It means that American citizens will suffer greatly in the coming two decades. We buy too much oil and gasoline from sources outside of the United States. We are not making efforts to cut back on driving. We should be buying fuel efficient transportation. But really, it’s a bit late for that. Just remember that over 6000 products, including medicine (antihistamine), made from petroleum, can’t be manufactured without it.
We should have never joined the WTO (World Trade Organization) or any pro-corporate trade agreement, for example, NAFTA. These trade agreements exist only to serve the CEOs and investors around the globe. We should have remained independent, making our own fair trade agreements with individual nations. We should not integrate with Canada and Mexico. We should secure our borders.
But, in the midst of dealing with 2.4 billion more people on the planet, it’s now a matter of survival for you and your family members. However, you won’t have any help from your government officials. They are pushing forward amnesty legislation for illegal Mexicans to provide cheap labor and to pay into Social Security. Corporations want as many people as possible to move in, work cheap and buy stuff.
The U.S. Census Bureau states that we will have 439 million people in America by 2050. With that extra 135 million people there’s a lot of bad news for our nation. Just one fact says it all, though. We will need to “construct enough roads to handle 106 million more vehicles, and make other accommodations for a population this size.” (numbersusa, 09/03/08)
Question: How are we going to find oil to supply 106 million more vehicles when we can’t support those we have now? Plus the world supply of oil is about to get a lot smaller.
And life, as we know it, will be a memory.